COVID is expected to lower China’s GDP growth to 5.0 percent in 2022
According to a Reuters poll, China’s economic growth would likely fall to 5.0 percent in 2022 due to further COVID-19 outbreaks and faltering global recovery, putting more pressure on the central bank to loosen policies further.
The projected growth rate for 2022 is lower than the 5.2 percent predicted by economists in a Reuters poll in January, implying that the government will have a difficult time meeting this year’s 5.5 percent target. After that, growth is expected to accelerate to 5.2 percent in 2023.
According to the median projections of 41 economists polled by Reuters, GDP grew 4.4 percent in the first quarter from a year ago, beating the fourth-4.0 quarter percent due to a strong start in the first two months.
Analysts predict that China’s efforts to contain its largest COVID outbreak since the coronavirus was first found in the city of Wuhan in late 2019 could hamper March activities.
The figures for March activities are likely to show a significant decline, but that would only be the tip of the iceberg, as the economically harmful lockdowns only began in mid-March. Because of the infrastructure drive, the reporting techniques, and the surprisingly robust figures observed in January and February, real GDP growth may escape going below 4%. According to the poll, quarterly growth is expected to drop to 0.6 percent in the first quarter from 1.6 percent in October-December.
On April 18, at 0200 GMT, the government will disclose first-quarter GDP figures as well as March activity data. GDP grew reached its fastest rate in a decade in 2021, but progress slowed significantly last year, weighed down by debt difficulties in the housing sector and anti-virus efforts that harmed consumer confidence and spending.
Policymakers focused last year on reducing property and debt concerns, exacerbating the economic recession.
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